How Many Metros Clear A 28% PITI Test?
The metro housing affordability scorecard asks one citeable question: on the ACS median home, with 20% down and the latest PMMS 30-year rate, is full PITI at or below 28% of ACS median household income? That is the classic front-end debt-to-income rule — applied to the same tax and homeowners-insurance stack used in our true monthly housing cost tables.
Last reviewed: · Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-year; Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED; Daily Calcs mortgage geo + HOI table
Editorial note: County ACS medians are planning context only. Your qualification depends on credit, debts, LTV, product type, and local insurance quotes — not medians alone.
Research method: Daily Calcs locks ACS B19013 (income) and B25077 (owner-occupied median value) for 20 curated counties, applies 20% down and the latest committed PMMS 30-year rate with the same fixed-payment engine as the Mortgage Calculator, adds merged geo property tax and state homeowners insurance, then flags metros where PITI ÷ (income/12) ≤ 0.28.
Metro housing affordability scorecard · Snapshot verified
Using ACS 2024 5-year county medians and the latest Freddie Mac 30-year PMMS of 7.40% ( ), 0 of 20 metros clear a 28% front-end PITI test on the ACS median home value with 20% down. Closest: Detroit (Wayne County) at 32.2% of median income. Farthest: Los Angeles (Los Angeles County) at 74.7%.
Pair check: Houston (Harris County) 41.3% vs Seattle (King County) 53.4% of median household income.
- Affordable metros
- 0 / 20
- PITI ≤ 28% of income
- PMMS 30yr
- 7.40%
- Week ending 2026-10-15
- Most affordable
- 32.2%
- Detroit (Wayne County)
- Least affordable
- 74.7%
- Los Angeles (Los Angeles County)
Income and home value: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2024 5-Year Estimates via Census Reporter API. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). Data retrieved via FRED series MORTGAGE30US and MORTGAGE15US. Homeowners insurance: Insurance.com average homeowners insurance rates for $400,000 dwelling coverage ($300,000 liability, $1,000 deductible). Property tax from Daily Calcs merged mortgage geo JSON. Download the CSV: metro affordability. Frame: ACS median value, 20% down, 30-year fixed, full PITI. Excludes PMI, HOA, flood, and other debts.
| Metro | Median income | Median value | PITI / mo | PITI / income | Affordable? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit (Wayne County) | $60,539 | $178,500 | $1,624 | 32.2% | No |
| Philadelphia (Philadelphia County) | $61,953 | $243,100 | $1,786 | 34.6% | No |
| Raleigh (Wake County) | $105,768 | $461,300 | $3,079 | 34.9% | No |
| Columbus (Franklin County) | $75,176 | $288,400 | $2,232 | 35.6% | No |
| San Antonio (Bexar County) | $72,341 | $262,200 | $2,188 | 36.3% | No |
| Charlotte (Mecklenburg County) | $87,005 | $406,800 | $2,746 | 37.9% | No |
| Chicago (Cook County) | $83,498 | $324,500 | $2,662 | 38.3% | No |
| Dallas (Dallas County) | $76,547 | $303,000 | $2,522 | 39.5% | No |
| Phoenix (Maricopa County) | $89,300 | $452,800 | $2,978 | 40.0% | No |
| Atlanta (Fulton County) | $95,292 | $458,800 | $3,223 | 40.6% | No |
| Houston (Harris County) | $74,983 | $276,600 | $2,579 | 41.3% | No |
| Nashville (Davidson County) | $77,853 | $417,400 | $2,857 | 44.0% | No |
| Austin (Travis County) | $99,611 | $523,000 | $4,086 | 49.2% | No |
| Tampa (Hillsborough County) | $79,540 | $371,500 | $3,415 | 51.5% | No |
| Orlando (Orange County) | $79,719 | $390,100 | $3,500 | 52.7% | No |
| Denver (Denver County) | $94,718 | $616,000 | $4,209 | 53.3% | No |
| Seattle (King County) | $124,746 | $859,900 | $5,555 | 53.4% | No |
| Boston (Suffolk County) | $95,631 | $705,800 | $4,445 | 55.8% | No |
| Miami (Miami-Dade County) | $71,753 | $463,000 | $4,052 | 67.8% | No |
| Los Angeles (Los Angeles County) | $90,112 | $834,200 | $5,611 | 74.7% | No |
ACS verified · PMMS verified · HOI verified · Stack verified . County ACS medians are planning context — not a Loan Estimate or insurance quote. County-level ACS medians labeled by primary city. Owner-occupied median value (B25077) is not a listing-price median.
What The Data Shows
High rates make the 28% bar hard to clear
When PMMS sits in the mid-7% band, even lower-value metros often land above 28% once taxes and insurance sit on top of principal and interest. The scorecard’s N of M count is the headline — the ranked share column shows who is closest.
Income helps, but value and insurance dominate
High-income metros with very high ACS values (coastal California, parts of the Northeast, King County) still post large PITI shares. Hurricane-exposed Florida metros combine elevated insurance with mid-tier incomes, which stretches the escrow stack further.
This is not the same as “max home price”
The Home Affordability Calculator solves for how much house an income can support. This scorecard does the reverse: fix the ACS median house, then ask whether median income covers it under a shared rate.
Method And Limits
- Income: ACS 5-year
B19013_001E(median household income) at county level. - Home value: ACS 5-year
B25077_001E(median owner-occupied value) at county level; labeled by primary city. - Loan frame: 20% down, 30-year fixed, no PMI in the model.
- Rate: Latest weekly observation in committed
pmms-30yr.json. - Tax / insurance: Same helpers as the true monthly housing cost stack — geo tax merge + state HOI / 12.
- Affordable flag:
monthlyPiti / (medianIncome / 12) ≤ 0.28. - Excluded: PMI, HOA, flood, back-end debts, points, lender pricing.
- Refresh:
pnpm housing:acs-fetch(ACS JSON) ·pnpm rates:fetch(PMMS) ·pnpm housing:affordability(CSV).
ACS values lag listing markets and average across a five-year window. Use current quotes for decisions.
Related Reading
- True Monthly Housing Cost by State ($400k PITI) - same tax + insurance stack on a locked $400k frame
- Weekly PMMS Payment Index - rate-only P&I series with CSV
- PITI Breakdown by State - principal, interest, taxes, and insurance explained
- How Much House Can You Afford in Houston? - local affordability worked example
- Home Affordability Calculator - solve max price from your income
Official And Supporting Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey
- Freddie Mac - Primary Mortgage Market Survey
- FRED - MORTGAGE30US
- CFPB - Debt-to-income ratio
Next Step
Download the metro affordability CSV, then plug your income, debts, and a local insurance quote into the Home Affordability Calculator or Mortgage Calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Daily Calcs metro housing affordability scorecard?
It compares ACS 5-year median household income to monthly PITI (principal, interest, taxes, and insurance) on that county’s ACS median owner-occupied home value. The mortgage rate is the latest Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average, with 20% down and a 30-year term. A metro clears the scorecard when PITI is at or below 28% of median income — the classic front-end debt-to-income rule.
Why use ACS median home value instead of listing prices?
ACS B25077 is a consistent, citeable owner-occupied value for every county in the set. Listing medians move weekly and are harder to audit. ACS lags the market and covers a five-year window, so treat the scorecard as a structural affordability benchmark — then stress-test with current list prices in the Mortgage Calculator.
Does affordable mean buyers can actually get a loan?
No. Clearing 28% front-end PITI on medians ignores credit score, debts, reserves, LTV overlays, and local insurance quotes. Back-end DTI (including car loans and student debt) is excluded. The scorecard answers one question: does median income cover median-home PITI under a shared rate and tax/insurance stack?
Where can I download the data?
Download the CSV from this page at /data/reports/metro-affordability-2026.csv. Columns include ACS income and value, PMMS rate, loan amount, monthly P&I, tax, insurance, PITI, PITI share of income, affordable flag, and verified dates. Regenerate with pnpm housing:affordability after a PMMS or ACS refresh.
How often is the scorecard updated?
The mortgage rate updates when we refresh Freddie Mac PMMS. ACS county medians refresh when we re-run pnpm housing:acs-fetch against the latest ACS 5-year release (typically annual). Property tax and homeowners insurance update when geo or HOI JSON changes. The headline verified date is the latest of those inputs.
Can I cite or republish this scorecard?
Yes. Use the citation block on this page. Credit the U.S. Census Bureau ACS for income and home value, Freddie Mac PMMS for the rate, and Daily Calcs for the tax merge, insurance table, and payment math. Link back to this URL and note the 20% down / 30-year / 28% front-end frame.
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