Direct Answer
National 2025 HMDA home-purchase approval odds are 89.14% (denial rate 10.86% on 5,331,416 final-action applications). Inside our 137-county calculator footprint (≥500 applications), Douglas County, CO leads at 95.36% and Polk County, FL sits at the bottom at 82.58% — a 12.78-point spread. Download the joined CSV for every county row.
Last reviewed: · Sources: FFIEC / CFPB modified LAR (2025); FHFA conforming limits (2026); Census ACS 5-year; FEMA NFIP; HUD FMR FY2026
Editorial note: Aggregate HMDA outcomes are planning context, not a lender decision or fair-lending legal analysis.
Research method: Keep loan purpose = home purchase and actions 1-5, compute approval_odds = 1 − denial_rate, join FIPS to loan limits / ACS / NFIP / FMR from committed JSON only, then rank counties with at least 500 applications.
Download: homebuyer-approval-odds-by-county-2026.csv
Press Kit
Three key findings (cite-ready)
- National bar: 89.14% approval odds on 2025 HMDA home-purchase final actions (denial rate 10.86%; 5,331,416 applications) — from the HMDA Mortgage Denial Atlas.
- Footprint leaders: Among 136 ranked counties (≥500 apps), Douglas County, CO posts 95.36% approval odds (8,860 apps; denial 4.64%). Arlington County, VA is second at 95.19%.
- Footprint floor: Polk County, FL posts 82.58% approval odds (21,866 apps; denial 17.42%). Miami-Dade County, FL is 83.24% with a typical NFIP premium of $1,180/year in the joined snapshot.
Suggested citation
Daily Calcs. “2026 Homebuyer Approval Odds by County.” https://dailycalcs.com/blog/finance/homebuyer-approval-odds-by-county-2026/ — HMDA 2025 home-purchase denial rates joined to FHFA 2026 conforming limits, Census ACS, FEMA NFIP, and HUD FMR. CSV: https://dailycalcs.com/data/reports/homebuyer-approval-odds-by-county-2026.csv
Related tools for deep links
- State mortgage hubs — pick a state, then a county calculator page
- HMDA Mortgage Denial Atlas (2025) — national loan-type, DTI, CLTV, and top-county cuts
- Conforming loan limits by county (2026) — jumbo vs conforming thresholds
- State compare / rankings — sortable denial rates, ACS owner costs, and loan limits across state hubs
Highest Approval Odds (Top 10)
Counties with ≥500 2025 HMDA home-purchase applications in the calculator footprint. Numbers match the CSV.
Swipe to see all columns →
| Rank | County | State | Apps | Denial rate | Approval odds | Conforming 1-unit | ACS price / income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas County | CO | 8,860 | 4.64% | 95.36% | $862,500 | 4.62× |
| 2 | Arlington County | VA | 2,535 | 4.81% | 95.19% | $1,249,125 | 6.17× |
| 3 | Jefferson County | CO | 10,239 | 4.86% | 95.14% | $862,500 | 5.61× |
| 4 | Williamson County | TN | 5,516 | 5.40% | 94.60% | $1,029,250 | 5.13× |
| 5 | Boulder County | CO | 4,825 | 5.45% | 94.55% | $879,750 | 6.95× |
| 6 | Alexandria | VA | 2,399 | 5.54% | 94.46% | $1,249,125 | 6.13× |
| 7 | Denver County | CO | 10,753 | 5.58% | 94.42% | $862,500 | 6.40× |
| 8 | Virginia Beach | VA | 7,574 | 5.60% | 94.40% | $832,750 | 4.04× |
| 9 | Norfolk | VA | 4,145 | 5.62% | 94.38% | $832,750 | 4.25× |
| 10 | Loudoun County | VA | 7,469 | 5.68% | 94.32% | $1,249,125 | 3.92× |
Lowest Approval Odds (Bottom 5)
Swipe to see all columns →
| Rank | County | State | Apps | Denial rate | Approval odds | ACS median owner costs | NFIP median premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | Montgomery County | TX | 24,644 | 15.43% | 84.57% | $2,229 | — |
| 133 | Wayne County | MI | 25,301 | 15.57% | 84.43% | $1,512 | — |
| 134 | Miami-Dade County | FL | 30,054 | 16.76% | 83.24% | $2,326 | $1,180 |
| 135 | Bronx County | NY | 4,017 | 17.08% | 82.92% | $2,937 | — |
| 136 | Polk County | FL | 21,866 | 17.42% | 82.58% | $1,609 | — |
Sample Outreach Counties
Useful for local pitches (CSV rows are authoritative).
Swipe to see all columns →
| County | State | Approval odds | Apps | Conforming 1-unit | FMR 2BR | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis County | TX | 90.70% | 20,320 | $832,750 | $1,529 | Austin metro; NFIP median premium $756 |
| Harris County | TX | 86.10% | 69,175 | $832,750 | $1,412 | Highest app volume in the footprint |
| Miami-Dade County | FL | 83.24% | 30,054 | $832,750 | — | Lowest FL large market; NFIP $1,180 |
DTI And CLTV Context (National Atlas)
County ranks blend every product and borrower mix. National 2025 HMDA bands show how leverage moves denial risk (same LAR filters; from the atlas JSON).
Swipe to see all columns →
| Band | Applications | Denial rate | Approval odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| DTI 20%-<30% | 520,830 | 9.13% | 90.87% |
| DTI >60% | 169,756 | 84.67% | 15.33% |
| CLTV ≤80 | 1,637,088 | 8.02% | 91.98% |
| CLTV >100 | 222,010 | 15.15% | 84.85% |
Method And Limits
- HMDA year: 2025 combined modified LAR snapshot (
src/data/hmda/snapshots/2025.json), verified 2026-10-16. - Filters: Home purchase; actions originated, approved-not-accepted, denied, withdrawn, closed incomplete (1-5).
- Approval odds:
1 − denial_rate(non-denial share of final-action applications). Originated share is also exported for transparency. - Universe: Mortgage calculator geo FIPS (
mortgage-geo-fips.json) ∩ HMDA county keys → 137 CSV rows; 136 ranked at ≥500 applications. - Joins (offline JSON only): FHFA 2026 conforming 1-unit + high-cost flag; ACS 5-year medians (value, income, owner costs, cost-burden share, price-to-income); FEMA NFIP median premium / policy count; HUD FY2026 FMR 2BR.
- Excluded: Live Census API calls, refinance purpose codes, purchased loans, preapproval-only actions, lender-level CRA analysis.
- Refresh:
pnpm report:approval-oddsafter HMDA / limits / ACS / NFIP / FMR JSON updates.
ACS values lag listing markets. NFIP and FMR columns are sparse where the committed county snapshot has nulls — treat blanks as “not in snapshot,” not zero.
Related Reading
- HMDA Mortgage Denial Atlas - National 2025 Data - national product, DTI, CLTV, and top-county denial tables
- Mortgage Denial Rates by County - 2025 HMDA - calculator-footprint denial rankings
- Conforming Loan Limits by County (2026) - jumbo thresholds with CSV
- True Monthly Housing Cost by State (2026) - PITI stack on a locked $400k frame
- State hubs - local mortgage calculators with HMDA context
Official And Supporting Sources
- CFPB - HMDA data
- FFIEC - Modified LAR schema
- FHFA - Conforming loan limits
- U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey
- FEMA - NFIP
- HUD - Fair Market Rents
Next Step
Download the approval-odds CSV, open a state hub, then stress-test a payment in the Mortgage Calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does homebuyer approval odds mean in this report?
Approval odds equal one minus the HMDA home-purchase denial rate for final-action applications (actions 1-5). A county denial rate of 4.64% means approval odds of 95.36%. This is the same definition used on our mortgage calculator personalization panel. It is not the same as the originated share, which excludes withdrawals and incomplete files.
Which counties are included in the CSV?
The CSV covers counties in our mortgage calculator footprint that have a 2025 HMDA home-purchase snapshot (137 counties). Rankings use a 500-application floor, matching the national HMDA denial atlas. Thin-volume counties still appear with an empty rank so reporters can audit the full join.
How do loan limits, ACS, NFIP, and FMR fit in?
Each HMDA county row is joined by FIPS to 2026 FHFA conforming limits, ACS 5-year housing medians (home value, income, owner costs, cost-burden share), FEMA NFIP county premiums when policy counts clear our display floor, and HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rent (2BR) when present. Empty cells mean the committed snapshot has no usable value for that FIPS — not a live API miss.
Can I cite or download this report?
Yes. Download the CSV at /data/reports/homebuyer-approval-odds-by-county-2026.csv and use the press-kit citation on this page. Credit CFPB/FFIEC for HMDA, FHFA for conforming limits, Census ACS for housing medians, FEMA for NFIP, and HUD for FMR. Link back to this URL.
How often is the table refreshed?
HMDA figures update when we re-aggregate the committed LAR snapshot. Loan limits, ACS, NFIP, and FMR update when their offline refresh scripts rewrite the JSON under src/data/. Regenerate the CSV with pnpm report:approval-odds — the script never calls the Census API.
Is this personal underwriting advice?
No. HMDA shows aggregate outcomes, not the credit file behind any decision. Your odds still depend on credit history, reserves, employment, property type, and lender overlays. Model a payment in the Mortgage Calculator, then talk to a lender or HUD-approved counselor for a decision.
Related guides
- HMDA Closing Costs by County 2025 - Median Loan Costs See median HMDA total loan costs, rates, and CLTV by county from originated home-purchase loans. Free methodology and CSV when the LAR snapshot includes costs.
- HMDA Mortgage Denial Atlas - National 2025 Data 2025 HMDA national denial rates by loan type, DTI, CLTV, state, and top counties. Free CSV downloads. Snapshot verified methodology. Cite freely.
- Mortgage Denial Rates by County - HMDA (2026) 2025 HMDA: Polk County FL leads at 17.42% denial rate. Rankings across 137 counties in 20 states. Snapshot verified Oct 16, 2026. Free calculator.
- Conforming Loan Limits by County 2026 - FHFA CSV Free 2026 FHFA conforming loan limits by county with high-cost flags and FHA floor/ceiling context. Download the CSV and see how jumbo thresholds work.
- Metro Housing Affordability Scorecard - ACS PITI (2026) See how many of 20 metros clear a 28% PITI test on ACS median homes at the latest PMMS rate. Free CSV download, methodology, and cite block.